Mar. 10, 2008— Printing Industries Alliance (PIA) of Long Island hosted Dr. Joe Webb on Wednesday, Feb. 27 in Amityville. Webb's presentation—titled "What Lies Ahead for the Graphic Communications Industry?"—focused on both the global and national economy, how these affect the print industry, and what to expect in the coming years.

The meeting opened with Rich Barbaria, president, Strategic Graphic Solutions Inc., and chairman, PIA LI, welcoming the more than 50 attendees. He noted that "A void was left on Long Island" for industry associations, and the PIA has stepped up to the plate, making a commitment to the area and the chapter, and offering support for the programs and information its members want to see.

This sentiment was reinforced by both Steve Zenger, president, The Zenger Group, and chairman, PIA; and Tim Freeman, president, PIA. Both noted that the association is here to serve local members, and encouraged people to get involved both in attending the events, as well as suggesting events they would like to see in the future. There are wildly disparate conditions in the economies and challenges people face in various regions, Zenger noted. Freeman agreed, noting that, "This is your organization, and we're here to serve you."

Looking Forward
Webb's presentation focused primarily on inflation and the GDP, and how these things impact printers and suppliers on almost every level. Inflation, in particular, is something many print shops don't account for.

"You have to adjust your business growth for inflation," he told attendees. "If you're not growing more than the GDP, you're not growing." He noted that you can't just look at a few percentages points of growth year-over-year. You must compare that to inflation and other factors, otherwise you may only think you are growing, when in fact you are only treading water, or worse losing value.

Every year, Webb said, shops need to adjust their profits, costs, etc. for inflation to get a true idea of how much, if any, they have grown. He offered these multipliers to compare to 2007 dollars:

2003: x1.140
2004: x1.104
2005: x1.067
2006: x1.041

For 2008, he predicts that while things won't be perfect, they won't be as horrible as some mainstream media outlets are portraying. For the GDP, he believes there will be slow growth, of 2-2.5 percent. Inflation will be a bigger issue, with a possible 5 percent or more hitting the economy.

Unemployment is another factor that printers should keep any eye on, but again, Webb notes that it isn't as bad as some have led the public to believe. In general, he says, an unemployment rate of 4-6 percent is considered full employment for the country. For 2008/2009, that will not get above 5.5 percent, he believes, which is slightly higher than today, but only by a small amount.

All in all, Webb believes that while this is a challenging market, there are opportunities for shops who takes risks. The total number of shops and employees in the print industry in Nassau and Suffolk counties has gone down over the past few years, but the number of employees per shop has increased, suggesting that those who do find a successful business model are doing very well indeed.